Dark Horses, Ladder-Climbers, and Our Winners: Team EN’s Badminton Leaderboard Predictions

Emily King and Valmy Biats. Photo by Nico Morgan Media.

With some 85 entries in the mix, picking the winner of this year’s MARS Badminton Horse Trials might seem like a fool’s errand — but that’s the kind of errand we like the best around here, frankly. We’ve corralled the team to pick out some of the horses we’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on — and we want to know your picks, too! Jump into the comments and share your hot tips for the week to come, or lambast us for our choices, we’re here for it.

Christoph Wahler and D’Accord. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

TILLY BERENDT 

Winner: Right, here’s what’s going to happen: Ros on Walter and Tom on Dubs and Tim on Vitali will battle it out to sit within a penalty of one another on something stupid like a 22, and then Ros will go clear inside the time (she won’t believe it even though nobody will be surprised at all) and Tom and Tim will both add exactly 3.6 time penalties, and Oliver Townend will go inside the time on one of his two greys (I’m inclined to say Cooley Rosalent, who’s looked better than Ballaghmor Class this spring) to throw himself right into the hunt. Emily King and Yas Ingham will also be floating around the top five, ready to pounce, and then a seriously influential Sunday course will throw the whole leaderboard into the tumble dryer and the ONLY horse to go clear from the top ten will be Vitali (and Tim Price), somehow, inexplicably. I’m kidding, obviously, but now that I’ve written it out I kind of love the idea of Badminton doing what it does best and blowing up all the stats and making us all look like we know nothing, so sod it: it comes down to showjumping and the horse who always has three down will win it because he’ll excel particularly in this phase. Am I cooked, chat?

Dark Horse: I was going to pick Germany’s Jérôme Robiné and Black Ice here, but Cheg’s beaten me to it because she also has exceptional taste. So in the interest of mixing things up a bit, I’ll choose Austria’s Harald Ambros and Vitorio du Montet as an interesting pair to keep an eye on. You might recognise this horse as being a former ride of France’s Maxime Livio, with whom he was a bit of an FOD machine at five-star. Since then, he’s been on a bit of a tour of continental European riders, but has been with his dentist/Olympian rider since mid-2023. They’ve been slowly getting to know one another over that time, and went well if uncompetitively at the Olympics last year – and now, I think they’re ready to take their partnership to the next level and really go for it on Saturday. They’ll start in the high-30s in dressage, so climbing will be the goal – and Harald doesn’t necessarily have the same kind of experience that Maxime does, but he’s a nice rider with a really cool opportunity in front of him here. 

Best Mare: God, what an embarrassment of riches we’ve got in this category, hey? It would be so easy to throw a line in any direction and land on something really, really good – like, for example, last year’s winners, Caroline Powell and Greenacres Special Cavalier, or last year’s Kentucky champions, Oliver Townend and Cooley Rosalent – but I’d love to see a slightly less obvious choice come to the fore this week. I think this is the week we’ll see the performance of a lifetime from Kirsty Chabert’s sixteen-year-old Stubbs painting of a mare, Classic VI. This is one of those horses who’s so easy to love but so often such a heartbreaker: when she’s on form, she’s incredible, and has been second at Luhmühlen and sixth at Pau to prove that. Often, though, she’s prone to a bit of tension in the dressage, or a frustrating run-out across the country, or some from column A and some from column B. The pair will be pathfinders this week, as they were a few years ago, and while it didn’t go well for them that day, Classic’s been on super form so far this spring and feeling excellent. She and Kirsty looked enormously confident in the CCI4*-S at Thoresby, where they won the Polly Phillips Memorial Prize, and I reckon they’ll start us off with a bang by chucking a PB on the board on Thursday morning, before cruising along the top of the ground on Saturday and making it happen on Sunday. Also up for strong consideration here is my favourite Belgian mare who I mustn’t name in case I jinx anything, but I know you know. 

Top Non-British Entry: Because I’ve put a non-British but British-based pair up as my winners, I’m going to choose only from the non-British-based entries here – and my pick goes to Germany’s Christoph Wahler and the rangy D’Accord FRH. They finished ninth at Kentucky last year despite taking two rails on the final day, and really, that final phase is the only question mark I’d be holding against them at this point. They should start better than the 34 they put up in their last five-star – a 31 is more on-brand for them, and then they’ll deliver one of the speedier rounds of the day, even though D’Accord is about 29hh and doesn’t at all look like he should be as economical as he is. But he is! What a good boy. Christoph will have his game face on for Sunday and if they can deliver a solid performance, I think they’ll find themselves in a really competitive position. See also, again, a Belgian. 

Biggest Climber: Making enormous strides up the leaderboard on Saturday is such a fundamental part of Badminton that there’s even a trophy for the horse and rider who make the biggest leap. There’s a couple of previous winners of the Glentrool Trophy lining up again this week, including Alice Casburn and Topspin, who won it in 2022, and France’s Luc Chateau and Viens du Mont, who won it in 2023. Last year’s winner, Wills Oakden, returns too, not with the horse who rose so spectacularly – that was former Oliver Townend ride Arklow Puissance – but with A Class Cooley. I think any of the above three pairs can be relied upon to make a good bid for a big climb again, even though the dry going this week will make it that much harder to log a really serious upward trajectory on the leaderboard. But I’m going to cheat here and flag two options: one is a pair you’ll be familiar with in Harry Meade and Superstition, a horse who’s made the time in three of his four five-star runs, and while he’s prone to a single rail, he’s looking better and better in this phase. I can’t put all my eggs in this basket simply because of his dressage: he’ll most likely be in the low 30s, so there’ll be room to climb, but it’ll take a really bad day in the office, as at Maryland in 2022, to hit the high-30s scores that make for a serious hunt. My other choice as a potential Glentrooler is Germany’s Arne Bergendahl and his diminutive homebred Luthien NRW, who I’ve loved for a few years now (the horse, not Arne, although watch out, thirsty girls of EN, because you will love him). She’s a fiery little hare of a thing with a jump three times her size, and she’s really in her element when running long-format cross-country. She’s naturally lightning fast, and added just 0.8 time penalties in her first five-star at Luhmühlen in 2023. A rare and surprising mistake at Pau last year saw these two eliminated, and it’s clear this spring that Arne has been asking the mare to run with the handbrake on so they can focus on rideability – a tactic that I’d love to see pay off for them. They’ll start on a frustrating 38 or so, but they’re well capable of finishing on it and becoming one of the best-loved pairs of the weekend. (Also, amateur – sort of – competitor alert! Arne has a full-time ‘real’ job and produces his father’s young horses on the side.)

Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class. Photo by Libby Law.

China’s Alex Hua Tian and Chicko. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

CHEG DARLINGTON

Winner: Given that the field is scorching hot, this is probably the hardest win to predict that I’ve seen in a good while. Who’s going to win Badminton? Just glancing down the entries, I counted at least seventeen horse and rider combos who, based on previous 5* form, are in with a darn good shot. And we all know eventing likes to throw up a curve ball every now and then. It really is anyone’s guess this year. There’s all to play for and it’s going to be one heck of a competition, for sure. With that said, I’ll plump for Tom McEwen and JL Dublin, if for no other reason than to put a stop to the bridesmaid references which Tom must be so over by now. They’ve been second at Kentucky twice and third at Pau. It’s time for the top spot at 5* for this pair, surely.

Dark Horse: Jérôme Robiné and Black Ice are a horse and rider pair that I’ve had my eye on for a while now, ever since I needed a combination to fill up my Eventing Manager Team and they were the cheapest on the list (only because the prices are based on stats and they didn’t have many previous FEI runs with which to generate the numbers); it turned out to be a smart choice, and the pair have gone on to add some impressive results to their record since then. They finished top-10 at Luhmühlen on their 5* debut in 2023, where an uncharacteristic second pole on the final day dropped them down a place or two. They stuck to 4* last season, having been named in the second block of Germany’s Paris longlist after making their team debut at the European Championships in Le Pin au Haras and finishing seventh individually, so it’ll be interesting to see how their development over the past year translates to 5*. They’ve got plenty of experience together and plenty of good results. The Badminton field may be chock-a-block with big guns, but I won’t be in the least surprised to see this pair find themselves in the mix this week. Also, I do like when things align – literal dark horse, metaphorical dark horse, appropriate dark horsey-type name – yup, sounds like a dark horse to me.

Best Mare: What can I say? Harry Meade sure does seem to have a special thing going on with the ladies right now, with three super exciting mares in his 5* string. He was third and fourth at Burghley last fall with Cavalier Crystal and Annaghmore Valoner respectively, on both mares’ proper debut at the level (Cavalier Crystal was withdrawn after dressage at Badminton last year due to personal reasons unrelated to the horse). As the highest placed British-domiciled mare, Cavalier Crystal earned two embryo transfers courtesy of the Twemlows Burghley Scholarship for owner Charlotte Opperman, which is surely an exciting prospect to look forward to. Harry’s hot off a flight from Kentucky where he replicated those third and fourth placings with Et Hop Du Matz (OK, so he’s a gelding) and Grafennacht, the mare he took over from William Fox-Pitt at the end of last season and had very little in the way of prep runs with before taking on and conquering the massive 5* that is Kentucky. So yeah, best mare, I’m backing Harry’s ride because it seems the mares step up and perform for him. Also, Cavalier Crystal finished on her dressage at Burghley when she delivered that podium place for Harry and that’s the kind of quality and consistency that’ll stand you in good stead at a big three-day like Badminton.

Top Non-British Entry: It’s so cool to see Alex Hua Tian back at Badminton after a nine year hiatus while he focused on team duties for China. He ended his break from 5* at Pau last season, where his Badminton entry Chicko made his debut at the level and finished just off the podium in fourth. He’s a horse with a solid foundation at the lower levels, picking up a bunch of great placings as he’s made his way up to the top and Alex is such a technician, it’s easy to feel good about his Badminton chances with Chicko, although I have to admit to having been super excited about his other – now withdrawn – entry, Jilsonne van Bareelhof, and as a huge Don Geniro fan I’ll always miss seeing him hoofing it round the big events with Alex. But I digress. This partnership will be a cool watch and may well be up there when all’s said and done, which would be a cool result. So yeah, cool vibes all round for this pair.

Biggest Climber: I know, I know, no surprises here from me; if I’m not lauding him for the win or chatting about him as a literal dark horse, Galileo Nieuwmoed is my staple biggest climber pick. I’ve followed this horse since before people knew how to pronounce his name and have been cheerleading for David Doel to pick up his first 5* trophy with the gelding right from their first completion at the level when they nearly won Pau back in 2021. Their 5* debut came at the pop-up event at Bicton earlier that year, when the disruption to eventing due to Covid took its toll on cross country and David pulled up and cooled Galileo off in the water at one of the fences, with the eventing community proving just how special it really is and everyone in the vicinity – riders, fence judges, probably even spectators – all piling in to help, causing Spencer Sturmey in the commentary box to shed a tear or two at the sight of such camaraderie – man, I love eventing. Since then, they’ve finished on their dressage score at Kentucky and Burghley, and came squeaky close at Badminton in 2022 but for a few seconds of cross country time. They’ve been sixth at Badminton, fourth at Pau, third at Maryland, second at Burghley and top ten at Kentucky and Luhmühlen. He’s proved he can be quick and clear over the toughest tracks in the world, and that he can come out on the final day showing absolutely zero sign that he’s galloped for 11 and a half minutes, navigating complex and enormous fences the day before. What a treat it must be to be sat on a horse like that. David says he wasn’t at all sure about Galileo when he first got him, but boy oh boy he must be delighted to have been so wrong. Can a mid-30s finishing score win Badminton? Incredibly, in this year’s field, probably not. But I’d like to see them give it a darned good try and I won’t be the only one with tears in my eyes if they pull it off.

Samantha Lissington and Lord Seekonig. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

DIANA GILBERTSON

Winner: Ah listen, I could try to put a really unique spin on this, a la Tilly Berendt (who, for the record, might not actually be that far from the truth), but at the moment, I am just going to admit defeat and go with the predictable answer of Ros Canter and the 2023 winner Lordships Graffalo. Winner of Burghley Autumn, he has yet to finish off the podium at 5* – he was 2nd here on his debut in 2022 – and I just cannot forsee anyone overtaking them this year. I want to believe that Tom McEwen and JL Dublin can break their streak of seconditis, as Cheg says, or that the long serving 5* hero Ballaghmor Class can round out his already impeccable career with a Badminton win, finally clinching one of the few titles that still eludes him. But the truth of the matter is that Ros and “Walter” are nigh on untouchable when it comes to 5*. Effortlessly laying down a 22 at Burghley in September, they set the bar high from the off, and I really do think we will all have a sense of deja vu here this week. Fast enough over deep and yucky ground – see their winning year here, and the equally boggy Europeans later that year for reference – they will be like lightening over the firmer ground predicted here this year, and even if they do have a pole on the final day, their lead is likely to be so bloody big that it won’t matter anyway. But then, this is Badminton, so really, who knows? Tis all just speculation, and I am already feeling jittery about naming a winner so definitively, so please, don’t place your bets based on my limited knowledge. Far better to just sit and watch it all play out, I reckon. Or go with Tilly. Like I say, she has probably nailed it.

Dark Horse: Like my esteemed colleagues Tilly and Cheg, my immediate go-to here would be Germany’s Jérôme Robiné and Black Ice, but as Tilly says, it’s a little boring if we all pick the same one. So instead, I am going to go to the other side of the hemisphere, and slide New Zealand’s Sam Lissington and Lord Seekoning into the mix. Sam has been on a roll this year; she enjoyed six weeks of double clears on various horses at the beginning of the season, and admittedly it was Lord Seekoning that put paid to that streak, with a horse fall at Thoresby Park. But no, I have not lost my mind picking them as ones to watch this week – please, hear me out. They had been storming around to that point, and not only did they both get up and walk away just fine, they also went on to WIN the 4*S at Oudkarspel a fortnight later, leading from the front in a 29.9 and staying there with a double clear and only a smidge of time. 11th in his first 5* at Luhmühlen last summer, “Charlie” only joined Sam’s string in 2022, but he has shown his class all the way up the levels, with a top 10 in his first 4*L at Millstreet and a near perfect jumping record, too. Their dressage scores have improved exponentially of late: there is a massive 8 mark difference between their two 5* starts. If they can keep it in the 20’s at Badminton and finish on that – or very close to – then they may well jump their way into the top 10.

Best Mare: As a huge proponent of a mare, I am nothing short of delighted to see so many of them in this year’s Badminton field. Yes, they can be opinionated, but when a mare gives you her heart, you’re already half way to winning. Case in point? Oliver Townend’s bright young thing Cooley Rosalent, last year’s Kentucky winner. But ’tis not she that I am plumping for this time around, rightly or wrongly. In fact, I was going to go with Cavalier Crystal but once again Cheg beat me to it (great minds and all that). Forced to rethink, I am actually quietly smug about my third pick, Jonelle Price Pau 2022 winner Grappa Nera. Yes, I am as predictable as ever picking all the Kiwis, but no matter! I have my reasons. Strikingly similar to Jonelle’s Badminton winner, Classic Moet, in both appearance and personality, they were 6th here last year, and have a habit of sneaking up the leaderboard after cross country. “Grape” is somewhat of a loose cannon when it comes to the first phase, so while she may average around the mid-to low 30’s, a mid test explosion could raise that closer to 40, but with Mrs Price in the plate and a fierce determination to get the job done on cross country day, it would be of no surprise to see them sitting pretty on the final day once again. No, they probably won’t take the win, but don’t discount them for a top 10 finish.

Top Non-British Entry: Well, I have gone for Team New Zealand almost exclusively until this point, so I might as well stick with that theme. Plus, it really is hard to look past my pick here. Technically, as Tilly says, they are not actually a Non-Brit, having lived here since, well, forever it seems, BUT their passport says NZ, so I shall stand firm in my choice of Tim Price and Vitali. I was close to tears of heartbreak for Tim after Badminton last year, where the talented but tricky Vitali dropped further and further down the placings, as rail after rail fell. But then! Burghely comes around and once again there were tears in my eyes, this time of joy – and I will admit, a little disbelief – as Vitali left all but one of the coloured poles in their cups to stay just behind Ros Canter in second place. Could we see a repeat performance here this week? I reckon so.

Biggest Climber: Historically, I have always gone for Alice Casburn and Topspin, the perfect argument for the fact that dressage isn’t actually as important as everyone makes out; they have yet to set out on cross country in a particularly lofty position, yet they still have a clutch of top 10 finishes under their belt. But, rightly or wrongly, I am going to change it up a bit this time around, and nail my colours to the mast of a little Irish horse by the name of Grantstown Jackson. A sensitive little chap, dressage is his least favourite according to his rider, Sarah Ennis, who has to pin her tails down to stop them flapping and potentially upsetting him mid-test. But at 80% blood, he makes up for it as soon as he leaves the start box. The second fastest round at the 2023 Europeans, and third fastest here last year, “Jackie” is nothing short of a speed demon, and his mid-30’s dressage will be of little consequence once he has skipped his way around the cross country in double quick time. A tendency to drop a few poles on the final day might ruin his chances of a top 10 finish, but he can leave them all standing, and if he does, he will be the latest surprise superstar to emerge from Badminton, where anything really is possible.

Tom McEwen and JL Dublin. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

SALLY SPICKARD

Winner: This field is decidedly more difficult to handicap on any given year, but when you toss in all of the former 5* winners and podium finishers, you might as well take the System of a Down approach and just throw a bunch of word magnets at the fridge (WAKE UP – WHY HASN’T JL DUBLIN WON YET – LOTS OF GUITAR) and hope for the best. Emerging from my word toss are Tom McEwen and JL Dublin, who’ve been a bit “cursed” (if winning an Olympic gold medal and stuff is a curse) in terms of 5* wins, coming achingly close on many occasions but never quite getting it done. This feels like a great weekend to reverse the curse and find Tom atop the podium, if ONLY to make Tilly take a Chinch photo with him. 

Dark Horse: I’m going to hang my hat on Ryuzo Kitajima and Feroza Nieuwmoed, who competed in Tokyo as substitutes back in 2021 and have picked up two 15th-place finishes at 5*s, including Burghley last year. At Burghley, which would have much stiffer terrain than Badminton, they had about 38 seconds of time, but I think if they can pick up the pace a little on Saturday after laying down a low-30s or, maybe, even a sub-30 in the dressage, they could be right up in the mix on Sunday. And we know they can show jump: they went on to turn in a clear round on Sunday at Burghley last fall and also clinched a clear as substitutes for the Japanese team in Tokyo — and show jumping here at Badminton is nothing if not influential, so a solid jumper will be very valuable this weekend. 

Best Mare: It’s hard not to be “easy” and give this nod to Greenacres Special Cavalier, the winning ride of New Zealand’s Caroline Powell who simply eats 5* cross country for breakfast. She’s been on great form this year, and while there are actually quite a few mares in this field who could easily take this away, I think a repeat podium or even win is not out of the question for this pair. 

Top Non-British Entry:  I was SO SAD (like, STILL sad) that Lara de Liedekerke-Meier opted to stay on her side of the pond and take her Luhmühlen winner Hooney d’Arville to Badminton instead of Kentucky. But hey, now I get to pick them as my top non-Brit, and honestly I feel like this is a pair that, despite their big win in Germany, may come in slightly under the radar for reasons unbeknownst to me. But when they pick up a top 10 or better, you can come back here so I can say I told you so. 

Biggest Climber: Of course this honor goes to my old buddy Colorado Blue, who’s been one of my top favorite horses on the scene since he stepped up to the plate at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 when he was called off the reserve squad to compete. Austin O’Connor then brought “Salty” to Maryland in 2023 and took home the first Irish 5* win in 60-something years. This horse may be offended if I call him a big climber because he actually can do a really nice test, but given our field I think we’ll still see this pair climbing their way up and jumping two clear rounds to finish top 5 on Sunday. 

Lara de Liedekerke-Meier and her special homebred Hooney d’Arville. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

TOKEN NON-HORSEY TEAM OTHER HALF ALEX

Winner: I’ll be honest here: I’ve just picked all my friends. And so World Champ/Badminton first-timer Yasmin Ingham and Rehy DJ are my winners, even though every time I see Rehy DJ’s name I think of that godawful Robbie Williams song. That has nothing to do with my choice, I just want you to suffer like I do. YAS FTW!

Dark Horse: Germany’s Nico Aldinger and Timmo, who isn’t actually a dark horse, because we like to take that quite literally around these parts. So, sorry! He’s grey. But he’s awesome nonetheless, and Nico looks great in a bowtie, so I have high hopes for the horse inspection. I won’t be watching it, because there’s probably some football one, but I have high hopes anyway.

Best Mare: It’s Belgium’s Hooney d’Arville, ridden by Lara de Liedekerke-Meier, for me. She’s just the best mare! No further comments or info are needed to quantify that.

Top Non-British Entry: This will go to Tim Price and Vitali. Tim is always on my list, even when he’d probably prefer he wasn’t. I reckon a cheeky second for them.

Biggest Climber: A popular pick today in another category: for me, it’s Germany’s Jérôme Robiné and Black Ice. Ice, ice, baby! He’s tall, sleek, and smooth, and Black Ice ain’t bad looking either.

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